Luanda: Anna Blinkova vs Sofya Lansere

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Anna Blinkova (79%) · Anna Blinkova at 81¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 15

Anna Blinkova81¢Sofya Lansere19¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Anna Blinkova

Consensus Traders

Anna Blinkova 79%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.5K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

62.8¢ → 80.5¢

+28% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

11 of 14 top traders (79%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Anna Blinkova81%

Sofya Lansere20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Anna Blinkova11 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares18,899

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Sofya Lansere3 traders

Total Value$122.82

Total Shares458

Combined PnL+$332.43

Anna Blinkova — 79%Sofya Lansere — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Anna Blinkovaavg 65.6¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$222.91	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
tradecraft	Anna Blinkovaavg 62.9¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$717.32	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Anna Blinkovaavg 63.7¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$162.85	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
VE Venusian	Anna Blinkovaavg 57.1¢	$1.8K	$2.0K	+$192.48	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
65 6512395314597884	Anna Blinkovaavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$343.76	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 55.5¢	$647.31	$1.2K	+$559.92	54% 6333-5398 (11731)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 55.5¢	$587.38	$799.06	+$211.68
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 3.6¢	$59.93	$408.17	+$348.24
TH thestingsnake	Anna Blinkovaavg 66.5¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	+$160.67	60% 4530-3029 (7559)
38 38791873984189	Anna Blinkovaavg 66.5¢	$1.7K	$1.1K	-$23.75	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 53.3¢	$720.35	$564.7	-$155.65	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 63.6¢	$299.31	$331.61	+$32.3
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 53.3¢	$421.04	$233.09	-$187.95
MA MadridTime	Anna Blinkovaavg 57.6¢	$481.78	$480.67	-$1.11	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 76.1¢	$702.36	$327.38	-$30.14	53% 828-732 (1560)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 76.1¢	$260.3	$261.83	-$57.57
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 32.9¢	$91.67	$65.55	+$27.43
LI LimousinARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 58.1¢	$348.72	$315.06	-$33.66	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 58.1¢	$254.24	$212.06	-$42.17
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 47.2¢	$94.48	$103	+$8.52
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Anna Blinkovaavg 54.2¢	$234	$244.93	+$10.93	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
KA Kaczka	Anna Blinkovaavg 74¢	$146.96	$147.98	+$1.02	51% 500-489 (989)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 63.6¢	$121	$107.8	-$13.2	55% 9938-8254 (18192)
└ Anna Blinkova leg	Anna Blinkovaavg 63.6¢	$63.6	$80.5	+$16.9
└ Sofya Lansere leg	Sofya Lansereavg 41¢	$57.4	$27.3	-$30.1
RN1CTR	Sofya Lansereavg 34.3¢	$103.69	$59.03	-$44.66	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Sofya Lansereavg 35.3¢	$49.6	$48.22	-$1.37	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
FL flatbarrelCTR	Sofya Lansereavg 39¢	$1.0K	$15.57	+$378.46	58% 2812-2017 (4829)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Anna Blinkovaavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.73	+$0.08	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

Flaznorp

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$3,264.64

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$222.91

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

tradecraft

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$2,571.44

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$717.32

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

ferrariChampions2026

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$2,019.7

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$162.85

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Venusian

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,803.2

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$192.48

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

6512395314597884

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,491.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$343.76

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

EulhunterARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$647.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$559.92

Record

54%

6333-5398 (11731)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$587.3855.5¢+$211.68

Sofya Lansere$59.933.6¢+$348.24

thestingsnake

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,288.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$160.67

Record

60%

4530-3029 (7559)

38791873984189

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$1,688.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$23.75

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$720.35

Value

$564.7

PnL

-$155.65

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$299.3163.6¢+$32.3

Sofya Lansere$421.0453.3¢-$187.95

MadridTime

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$481.78

Value

$480.67

PnL

-$1.11

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$702.36

Value

$327.38

PnL

-$30.14

Record

53%

828-732 (1560)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$260.376.1¢-$57.57

Sofya Lansere$91.6732.9¢+$27.43

LimousinARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$348.72

Value

$315.06

PnL

-$33.66

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$254.2458.1¢-$42.17

Sofya Lansere$94.4847.2¢+$8.52

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$234

Value

$244.93

PnL

+$10.93

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Kaczka

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$146.96

Value

$147.98

PnL

+$1.02

Record

51%

500-489 (989)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$121

Value

$107.8

PnL

-$13.2

Record

55%

9938-8254 (18192)

Both legs:

Anna Blinkova$63.663.6¢+$16.9

Sofya Lansere$57.441¢-$30.1

RN1CTR

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$103.69

Value

$59.03

PnL

-$44.66

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$49.6

Value

$48.22

PnL

-$1.37

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

flatbarrelCTR

Sofya Lansere

Invested

$1,019.41

Value

$15.57

PnL

+$378.46

Record

58%

2812-2017 (4829)

ameisgoat11<$100

Anna Blinkova

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

NeutralAnna Blinkova at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Anna Blinkova

11 of 14 top traders (79%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Anna Blinkova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.