Sopo: Bianca Andreescu vs Marina Bassols Ribera

18 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Bianca Andreescu (67%) · Bianca Andreescu at 66¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 19

Bianca Andreescu66¢Marina Bassols Ribera34¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bianca Andreescu

Consensus Traders

Bianca Andreescu 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.4K

Combined PnL

$129.49

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 65.5¢

-10% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

18 of 27 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bianca Andreescu66%

Marina Bassols Ribera35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Marina Bassols Ribera9 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares17,582

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Bianca Andreescu18 traders

Total Value$15.0K

Total Shares21,858

Combined PnL$-1.2K

Marina Bassols Ribera — 33%Bianca Andreescu — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Bianca Andreescu) and the top 1000 (22 on Marina Bassols Ribera) disagree here.

sharpBianca Andreescu 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBianca Andreescu 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Marina Bassols Ribera 50% · 22

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 27.2¢	$4.2K	$5.4K	+$1.1K	42% 291-405 (696)
65 6512395314597884	Bianca Andreescuavg 73.3¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$194.52	50% 3542-3501 (7043)
RN1	Bianca Andreescuavg 63¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$23.9	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bianca Andreescuavg 74.5¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$100.86	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
GL glennyorkshire	Bianca Andreescuavg 80¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$373.49	45% 100-123 (223)
MO mouzsynapseARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 76¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$83.02	41% 66-94 (160)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 76¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$86.32
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 20¢	$338.68	$508.02	+$169.34
0xheavy888	Bianca Andreescuavg 79.5¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$164.16	54% 278-237 (515)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 52.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$8.71	54% 455-382 (837)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 52.8¢	$623.06	$819.43	+$196.36
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 49.6¢	$533.37	$328.29	-$205.08
38 38791873984189	Bianca Andreescuavg 76.7¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$211.65	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
VeryLucky888	Bianca Andreescuavg 79¢	$861.32	$774.09	-$87.22	52% 773-714 (1487)
BA babybells	Bianca Andreescuavg 72.4¢	$643.88	$617.36	-$26.52	27% 159-430 (589)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 67¢	$518.43	$612.4	+$93.97	32% 534-1112 (1646)
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 25.4¢	$247.76	$355.87	+$108.11
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 67¢	$270.67	$256.53	-$14.14
TH thestingsnake	Bianca Andreescuavg 67.2¢	$453.2	$430.84	-$2.76	30% 173-399 (572)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Bianca Andreescuavg 69¢	$414	$417	+$3	48% 342-378 (720)
GA Gaditima	Bianca Andreescuavg 76¢	$380	$350	-$30	46% 161-187 (348)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Bianca Andreescuavg 68¢	$340	$322.5	-$17.5	33% 312-635 (947)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 20¢	$143.6	$215.4	+$71.8	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
TH thirdt1me	Bianca Andreescuavg 69¢	$228.23	$164.48	-$7.75	45% 158-195 (353)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 69.5¢	$145.43	$144.53	-$0.89	36% 95-169 (264)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 69.5¢	$114.15	$109.2	-$4.95
└ Marina Bassols Ribera leg	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 29.7¢	$31.28	$35.34	+$4.06
DV dv-pmCTR	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 21¢	$97.44	$139.2	+$41.76	52% 13-12 (25)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 20.1¢	$70.4	$120.75	+$50.35	33% 558-1111 (1669)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 21.5¢	$57.97	$92.97	+$35	33% 553-1135 (1688)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 72¢	$97.58	$87.9	-$9.68	56% 3902-3070 (6972)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Marina Bassols Riberaavg 31.1¢	$62.68	$58.26	-$4.42	41% 257-370 (627)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 76.2¢	$50	$45.91	-$4.09	50% 141-139 (280)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$4,231.79

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

42%

291-405 (696)

6512395314597884

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$3,736.43

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$194.52

Record

50%

3542-3501 (7043)

RN1

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$2,755.17

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$23.9

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,684.2

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$100.86

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

glennyorkshire

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,927.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$373.49

Record

45%

100-123 (223)

mouzsynapseARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,432.09

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$83.02

Record

41%

66-94 (160)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$1,093.4176¢-$86.32

Marina Bassols Ribera$338.6820¢+$169.34

0xheavy888

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,375.55

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$164.16

Record

54%

278-237 (515)

NotJumpARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,156.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$8.71

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$623.0652.8¢+$196.36

Marina Bassols Ribera$533.3749.6¢-$205.08

38791873984189

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$2,014.11

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$211.65

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

VeryLucky888

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$861.32

Value

$774.09

PnL

-$87.22

Record

52%

773-714 (1487)

babybells

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$643.88

Value

$617.36

PnL

-$26.52

Record

27%

159-430 (589)

LimousinARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$518.43

Value

$612.4

PnL

+$93.97

Record

32%

534-1112 (1646)

Both legs:

Marina Bassols Ribera$247.7625.4¢+$108.11

Bianca Andreescu$270.6767¢-$14.14

thestingsnake

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$453.2

Value

$430.84

PnL

-$2.76

Record

30%

173-399 (572)

CandleHammerDrums

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$414

Value

$417

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

342-378 (720)

Gaditima

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$380

Value

$350

PnL

-$30

Record

46%

161-187 (348)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$340

Value

$322.5

PnL

-$17.5

Record

33%

312-635 (947)

FlaznorpCTR

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$143.6

Value

$215.4

PnL

+$71.8

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

thirdt1me

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$228.23

Value

$164.48

PnL

-$7.75

Record

45%

158-195 (353)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$145.43

Value

$144.53

PnL

-$0.89

Record

36%

95-169 (264)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$114.1569.5¢-$4.95

Marina Bassols Ribera$31.2829.7¢+$4.06

dv-pmCTR

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$97.44

Value

$139.2

PnL

+$41.76

Record

52%

13-12 (25)

MadridTimeCTR

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$70.4

Value

$120.75

PnL

+$50.35

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$57.97

Value

$92.97

PnL

+$35

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$97.58

Value

$87.9

PnL

-$9.68

Record

56%

3902-3070 (6972)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Marina Bassols Ribera

Invested

$62.68

Value

$58.26

PnL

-$4.42

Record

41%

257-370 (627)

Eulhunter<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$50

Value

$45.91

PnL

-$4.09

Record

50%

141-139 (280)

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

18 of 27 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

52% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Bianca Andreescu) and the top 1000 (22 on Marina Bassols Ribera) disagree here.

sharpBianca Andreescu 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBianca Andreescu 64% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Marina Bassols Ribera 50% · 22

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bianca Andreescu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.