Sopo: Bianca Andreescu vs Laura Pigossi
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bianca Andreescu (100%) · Bianca Andreescu at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 18
⚖️
Neutral
Bianca Andreescu
5
Bianca Andreescu 100%
$1.1K
$4.63
91¢ → 91.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralBianca Andreescu at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Bianca Andreescuavg 91¢ | $546 | $549 | +$3 | 52% 455-428 (883) |
FL Flaznorp | Bianca Andreescuavg 91¢ | $270.23 | $271.72 | +$1.48 | 51% 1842-1797 (3639) |
 Basquetipster | Bianca Andreescuavg 91¢ | $239.07 | $239.07 | +$0 | 4% 3-78 (81) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Bianca Andreescuavg 91¢ | $18.2 | $18.3 | +$0.1 | 48% 667-712 (1379) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Bianca Andreescuavg 91¢ | $9.1 | $9.15 | +$0.05 | 32% 291-617 (908) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$546
Value
$549
PnL
+$3
Record
52%
455-428 (883)
Invested
$270.23
Value
$271.72
PnL
+$1.48
Record
51%
1842-1797 (3639)
BasquetipsterInvested
$239.07
Value
$239.07
PnL
+$0
Record
4%
3-78 (81)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$18.3
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
667-712 (1379)
Invested
$9.1
Value
$9.15
PnL
+$0.05
Record
32%
291-617 (908)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.