Sopo: Bianca Andreescu vs Elizabeth Mandlik

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Bianca Andreescu (77%) · Bianca Andreescu at 90¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 21

Bianca Andreescu90¢Elizabeth Mandlik10¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bianca Andreescu

Consensus Traders

Bianca Andreescu 77%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$25.9K

Combined PnL

$688.81

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 89.5¢

+10% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bianca Andreescu90%

Elizabeth Mandlik11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bianca Andreescu17 traders

Total Value$23.5K

Total Shares25,734

Combined PnL+$725.71

Elizabeth Mandlik5 traders

Total Value$568.4

Total Shares3,673

Combined PnL-$36.9

Bianca Andreescu — 77%Elizabeth Mandlik — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBianca Andreescu 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bianca Andreescu 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Bianca Andreescuavg 76¢	$7.0K	$7.3K	+$298.22	50% 2529-2490 (5019)
MurkSniper	Bianca Andreescuavg 84¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$383.19	71% 34-14 (48)
VeryLucky888	Bianca Andreescuavg 81.6¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$3.19	53% 1366-1192 (2558)
VI vibing123	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$32.48	62% 1137-702 (1839)
VE Venusian	Bianca Andreescuavg 87.9¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$29.69	36% 953-1669 (2622)
tradecraft	Bianca Andreescuavg 79.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$18.35	30% 340-779 (1119)
MO mouzsynapse	Bianca Andreescuavg 80¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$21.12	39% 118-185 (303)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Bianca Andreescuavg 85.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$5.59	56% 4063-3173 (7236)
0xheavy888	Bianca Andreescuavg 83.5¢	$743.14	$720.89	-$22.25	54% 498-419 (917)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 76¢	$524.25	$548.65	+$24.4	30% 207-477 (684)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 76¢	$315.4	$346.53	+$31.13
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 17¢	$208.85	$202.13	-$6.73
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.3¢	$860.83	$528.69	+$47.91	34% 220-435 (655)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.3¢	$363.38	$404.79	+$71.31
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 12.4¢	$146.8	$123.9	-$23.4
TH thirdt1me	Bianca Andreescuavg 85.2¢	$668.76	$486.76	+$34.52	49% 281-295 (576)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 49.6¢	$1.1K	$433.76	+$6.65	52% 828-769 (1597)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 50.7¢	$178.41	$311.44	+$411.51
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 49.6¢	$527.19	$122.33	-$404.87
LI LightParadox	Bianca Andreescuavg 84¢	$390.76	$416.35	+$25.59	37% 964-1664 (2628)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 16.4¢	$285.08	$304.34	+$19.25	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.1¢	$273.5	$235.5	+$14.44	39% 125-195 (320)
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.1¢	$116.78	$120.3	+$7.87
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 16.5¢	$108.62	$115.2	+$6.58
LI LimousinCTR	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 15.9¢	$165.49	$150.91	-$14.58	36% 937-1647 (2584)
EF efntrick	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.5¢	$124.8	$126.32	+$1.52	44% 87-112 (199)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 18¢	$102.2	$104.07	+$1.88	52% 193-178 (371)
└ Elizabeth Mandlik leg	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 18¢	$52.2	$53.65	+$1.45
└ Bianca Andreescu leg	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.8¢	$50	$50.42	+$0.43
38 38791873984189CTR	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 15.3¢	$304.17	$58.48	-$26.22	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 80.9¢	$44.5	$44.82	+$0.32	50% 1593-1618 (3211)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 84.1¢	$33.65	$35.8	+$2.15	30% 244-581 (825)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 15¢	$30	$29	-$1	48% 229-247 (476)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Elizabeth Mandlikavg 17.9¢	$40.04	$25.69	-$14.35	48% 521-557 (1078)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Bianca Andreescuavg 82.5¢	$16.5	$16.3	-$0.2	41% 698-1011 (1709)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$6,975.67

Value

$7.3K

PnL

+$298.22

Record

50%

2529-2490 (5019)

MurkSniper

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$4,951.99

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$383.19

Record

71%

34-14 (48)

VeryLucky888

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$2,548.63

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$3.19

Record

53%

1366-1192 (2558)

vibing123

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,916.63

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$32.48

Record

62%

1137-702 (1839)

Venusian

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,349.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$29.69

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

tradecraft

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,174.35

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$18.35

Record

30%

340-779 (1119)

mouzsynapse

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,126.64

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$21.12

Record

39%

118-185 (303)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$1,037.45

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$5.59

Record

56%

4063-3173 (7236)

0xheavy888

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$743.14

Value

$720.89

PnL

-$22.25

Record

54%

498-419 (917)

babybellsARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$524.25

Value

$548.65

PnL

+$24.4

Record

30%

207-477 (684)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$315.476¢+$31.13

Elizabeth Mandlik$208.8517¢-$6.73

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$860.83

Value

$528.69

PnL

+$47.91

Record

34%

220-435 (655)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$363.3880.3¢+$71.31

Elizabeth Mandlik$146.812.4¢-$23.4

thirdt1me

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$668.76

Value

$486.76

PnL

+$34.52

Record

49%

281-295 (576)

NotJumpARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$1,074.25

Value

$433.76

PnL

+$6.65

Record

52%

828-769 (1597)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$178.4150.7¢+$411.51

Elizabeth Mandlik$527.1949.6¢-$404.87

LightParadox

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$390.76

Value

$416.35

PnL

+$25.59

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

FlaznorpCTR

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$285.08

Value

$304.34

PnL

+$19.25

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$273.5

Value

$235.5

PnL

+$14.44

Record

39%

125-195 (320)

Both legs:

Bianca Andreescu$116.7880.1¢+$7.87

Elizabeth Mandlik$108.6216.5¢+$6.58

LimousinCTR

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$165.49

Value

$150.91

PnL

-$14.58

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

efntrick

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$124.8

Value

$126.32

PnL

+$1.52

Record

44%

87-112 (199)

EulhunterARB<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$102.2

Value

$104.07

PnL

+$1.88

Record

52%

193-178 (371)

Both legs:

Elizabeth Mandlik$52.218¢+$1.45

Bianca Andreescu$5080.8¢+$0.43

38791873984189CTR

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$304.17

Value

$58.48

PnL

-$26.22

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

Pan9X<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$44.5

Value

$44.82

PnL

+$0.32

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

BillBenter2026<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$33.65

Value

$35.8

PnL

+$2.15

Record

30%

244-581 (825)

ojgCTR<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$30

Value

$29

PnL

-$1

Record

48%

229-247 (476)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Elizabeth Mandlik

Invested

$40.04

Value

$25.69

PnL

-$14.35

Record

48%

521-557 (1078)

ameisgoat11<$100

Bianca Andreescu

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

698-1011 (1709)

Research grade

NeutralBianca Andreescu at 90%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bianca Andreescu

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+18 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Bianca Andreescu. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBianca Andreescu 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBianca Andreescu 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Bianca Andreescu 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bianca Andreescu wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.