Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-11-15?
5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 99¢ · $287 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
11
Yes 45%
$286.56
-$151.02
90.4¢ → 99.5¢
+10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 96.5¢ | $126.7 | $124.89 | -$1.81 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 85.7¢ | $183.07 | $124.12 | -$58.95 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 31.6¢ | $14.63 | $12.49 | -$2.14 | 41% 1175-1673 (2848) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 | 54% 6017-5091 (11108) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $4.94 | -$0.01 | 48% 2522-2734 (5256) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.4¢ | $5.18 | $4.44 | -$0.74 | 46% 877-1027 (1904) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $70.4 | $3.84 | -$66.56 | 38% 1342-2182 (3524) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Noavg 1.4¢ | $2.28 | $1.96 | -$0.33 | 48% 1300-1386 (2686) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 22¢ | $21.74 | $1.19 | -$20.55 | 38% 1342-2205 (3547) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $0.96 | $1.01 | +$0.04 | 56% 651-514 (1165) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $0.66 | $0.69 | +$0.03 | 47% 1186-1362 (2548) |
Invested
$126.7
Value
$124.89
PnL
-$1.81
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Invested
$183.07
Value
$124.12
PnL
-$58.95
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
Invested
$14.63
Value
$12.49
PnL
-$2.14
Record
41%
1175-1673 (2848)
RN1<$100Invested
$7
Value
$7
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
6017-5091 (11108)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$4.94
PnL
-$0.01
Record
48%
2522-2734 (5256)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$4.44
PnL
-$0.74
Record
46%
877-1027 (1904)
Invested
$70.4
Value
$3.84
PnL
-$66.56
Record
38%
1342-2182 (3524)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$1.96
PnL
-$0.33
Record
48%
1300-1386 (2686)
Invested
$21.74
Value
$1.19
PnL
-$20.55
Record
38%
1342-2205 (3547)
Invested
$0.96
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.04
Record
56%
651-514 (1165)
Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
1186-1362 (2548)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.