Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-11-14?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (45%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 45%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

39.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares5,224

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares7,078

Combined PnL-$157.14

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Noavg 53.9¢	$1.9K	$3.5K	+$1.6K	36% 948-1669 (2617)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$202.69	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$863.97	$961.31	+$97.34	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$765.04	$754.18	-$10.86
└ No leg	Noavg 30.3¢	$98.93	$207.13	+$108.2
RN1CTR	Yesavg 38.3¢	$925.54	$675.89	-$249.65	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
MO mouzsynapse	Noavg 31¢	$336.23	$466.39	+$130.15	40% 117-177 (294)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 31¢	$184.51	$255.93	+$71.42	35% 440-800 (1240)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 65.9¢	$177.99	$170.4	-$7.59	56% 463-370 (833)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 65.9¢	$146.37	$126.54	-$19.83
└ No leg	Noavg 31¢	$31.62	$43.86	+$12.24
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 65¢	$176.42	$165.56	-$10.86	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$30.84	$29.86	-$0.98	19% 46-193 (239)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 98¢	$18.5	$18.41	-$0.09	37% 960-1662 (2622)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 48.6¢	$108.39	$10.05	-$98.34	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$5	+$0.35	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.34	$4.29	-$0.05	82% 709-151 (860)

Venusian

Invested

$1,896.59

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,000.15

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$202.69

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$863.97

Value

$961.31

PnL

+$97.34

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

Invested

$925.54

Value

$675.89

PnL

-$249.65

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

mouzsynapse

Invested

$336.23

Value

$466.39

PnL

+$130.15

Record

40%

117-177 (294)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$184.51

Value

$255.93

PnL

+$71.42

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$177.99

Value

$170.4

PnL

-$7.59

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

Both legs:

Yes$146.3765.9¢-$19.83

No$31.6231¢+$12.24

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$176.42

Value

$165.56

PnL

-$10.86

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.84

Value

$29.86

PnL

-$0.98

Record

19%

46-193 (239)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$18.5

Value

$18.41

PnL

-$0.09

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

topdogbigboiCTR

Yes

Invested

$108.39

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$98.34

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

PnL

+$0.35

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Invested

$4.34

Value

$4.29

PnL

-$0.05

Record

82%

709-151 (860)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.