Will Everton FC win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$35.84

Smart Money Entry

90.8¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,275

Combined PnL-$8.25

Yes3 traders

Total Value$189.19

Total Shares2,243

Combined PnL-$27.59

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 90.7¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$14.9	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$27.59	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
└ No leg	Noavg 89.8¢	$737.89	$751.88	+$14
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.8¢	$311.22	$269.63	-$41.59
RN1CTR	Yesavg 9.6¢	$190.16	$168.89	-$21.27	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Noavg 94¢	$125.63	$123.63	-$2	38% 544-884 (1428)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$85.13	$75.75	+$6.33	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 87¢	$56.22	$56.86	+$0.65	52% 820-759 (1579)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 86¢	$31.81	$32.92	+$1.11	56% 463-370 (833)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.79	$19.59	-$0.2	82% 709-151 (860)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$18.79	$19.56	+$0.77	35% 440-800 (1240)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.7¢	$20.44	$15.83	-$4.62	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$6.18	$4.47	-$1.71	46% 2653-3138 (5791)

Flaznorp

Invested

$2,920.63

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$14.9

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,049.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$27.59

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

Both legs:

No$737.8989.8¢+$14

Yes$311.229.8¢-$41.59

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$190.16

Value

$168.89

PnL

-$21.27

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Invested

$125.63

Value

$123.63

PnL

-$2

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$85.13

Value

$75.75

PnL

+$6.33

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$56.22

Value

$56.86

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.81

Value

$32.92

PnL

+$1.11

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Invested

$19.79

Value

$19.59

PnL

-$0.2

Record

82%

709-151 (860)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$18.79

Value

$19.56

PnL

+$0.77

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.44

Value

$15.83

PnL

-$4.62

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.18

Value

$4.47

PnL

-$1.71

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.