Will Manchester United WFC win on 2026-11-14?

2 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 80¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes80¢No20¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$36.72

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 79.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,440

Combined PnL+$50.17

No8 traders

Total Value$157.98

Total Shares876

Combined PnL-$13.44

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-60 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU sugar-super	Yesavg 79¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$49.61	5% 4-76 (80)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 21.5¢	$578.88	$524.52	-$54.36	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 82¢	$280.08	$281.78	+$1.71
└ No leg	Noavg 21.5¢	$298.81	$242.74	-$56.07
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 18¢	$60.94	$59.25	-$1.69	37% 965-1630 (2595)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 20.8¢	$31.74	$26.65	-$5.09	36% 926-1642 (2568)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 20¢	$26	$26	+$0	47% 895-991 (1886)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Yesavg 78¢	$17.36	$17.92	+$0.56	62% 204-124 (328)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 17.6¢	$15.75	$14.76	-$0.99	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 23.9¢	$14.87	$12.42	-$2.45	42% 989-1357 (2346)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 21¢	$14.7	$12.25	-$2.45	48% 2063-2220 (4283)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 22¢	$6.22	$5.65	-$0.57	37% 956-1658 (2614)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$1.2	$1	-$0.2	35% 437-797 (1234)

sugar-super

Yes

Invested

$1,119.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$49.61

Record

4-76 (80)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$578.88

Value

$524.52

PnL

-$54.36

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

Both legs:

Yes$280.0882¢+$1.71

No$298.8121.5¢-$56.07

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$60.94

Value

$59.25

PnL

-$1.69

Record

37%

965-1630 (2595)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$31.74

Value

$26.65

PnL

-$5.09

Record

36%

926-1642 (2568)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$26

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

895-991 (1886)

thatsabing0<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.36

Value

$17.92

PnL

+$0.56

Record

62%

204-124 (328)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

$14.76

PnL

-$0.99

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$14.87

Value

$12.42

PnL

-$2.45

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$2.45

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$6.22

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$0.57

Record

37%

956-1658 (2614)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

35%

437-797 (1234)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 10 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-60 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.