Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City WFC: O/U 2.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 65¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$998.84

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 64.5¢

+43% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares6,616

Combined PnL+$999.41

Over3 traders

Total Value$15.7

Total Shares31

Combined PnL-$0.56

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Underavg 46¢	$2.0K	$2.8K	+$789.77	36% 928-1642 (2570)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 43.4¢	$912.3	$1.1K	+$169.75	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 46¢	$49.21	$68.47	+$19.26	36% 945-1666 (2611)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$40.57	$60.63	+$20.06	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 34.2¢	$8.55	$9	+$0.45	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 44¢	$8.8	$8.9	+$0.1	37% 957-1658 (2615)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 66¢	$8.57	$8.31	-$0.26	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 36.2¢	$4.71	$4.36	-$0.35	37% 966-1631 (2597)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.98	$3.03	+$0.05	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.1	$2.13	+$0.02	42% 991-1360 (2351)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$1,963.74

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$789.77

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$912.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$169.75

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$49.21

Value

$68.47

PnL

+$19.26

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$40.57

Value

$60.63

PnL

+$20.06

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$8.55

Value

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$8.8

Value

$8.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.57

Value

$8.31

PnL

-$0.26

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.71

Value

$4.36

PnL

-$0.35

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.98

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.05

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.13

PnL

+$0.02

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.