Will Manchester City WFC win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes26¢No74¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$1.16

Smart Money Entry

76.5¢ → 74¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,056

Combined PnL+$1.01

Yes3 traders

Total Value$8.23

Total Shares36

Combined PnL+$0.15

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 76¢	$614.66	$618.7	+$4.04	35% 438-797 (1235)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 76.7¢	$562.27	$560.6	-$1.66	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 75¢	$249.12	$268.39	+$19.27	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
└ No leg	Noavg 75¢	$157.5	$156.45	-$1.05
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.9¢	$91.62	$111.94	+$20.32
CI cigarettes	Noavg 77¢	$107.8	$107.1	-$0.7	53% 7046-6183 (13229)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$94.68	$94.35	-$0.33	56% 461-367 (828)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 75¢	$75	$74.5	-$0.5	52% 812-742 (1554)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 78¢	$67.08	$67.08	+$0	37% 966-1630 (2596)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$51.58	$51.74	+$0.16	36% 928-1642 (2570)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$4.76	$4.76	-$0	46% 2602-3088 (5690)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$2	$1.91	-$0.09	21% 56-214 (270)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$1.32	$1.56	+$0.24	48% 2066-2225 (4291)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$614.66

Value

$618.7

PnL

+$4.04

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$562.27

Value

$560.6

PnL

-$1.66

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$249.12

Value

$268.39

PnL

+$19.27

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

Both legs:

No$157.575¢-$1.05

Yes$91.6220.9¢+$20.32

cigarettes

Invested

$107.8

Value

$107.1

PnL

-$0.7

Record

53%

7046-6183 (13229)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$94.68

Value

$94.35

PnL

-$0.33

Record

56%

461-367 (828)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$75

Value

$74.5

PnL

-$0.5

Record

52%

812-742 (1554)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$67.08

Value

$67.08

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$51.58

Value

$51.74

PnL

+$0.16

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

2602-3088 (5690)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$0.09

Record

21%

56-214 (270)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.24

Record

48%

2066-2225 (4291)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.