Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City WFC end in a draw?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 83¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$268.39

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 82.5¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,045

Combined PnL+$8.88

Yes6 traders

Total Value$596.39

Total Shares3,398

Combined PnL-$277.27

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 73.7¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$3.73	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 25.1¢	$439.86	$306.75	-$133.11	37% 957-1658 (2615)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 78.7¢	$205.57	$218.09	+$12.52	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 26.9¢	$235.58	$149.02	-$86.56	36% 945-1666 (2611)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 25.9¢	$178.46	$120.48	-$57.98	36% 928-1642 (2570)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 78¢	$109.2	$109.2	+$0	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$13	$13.25	+$0.25	37% 966-1631 (2597)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$4.76	$4.98	+$0.22	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 76¢	$3.17	$3.25	+$0.08	30% 334-774 (1108)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$2	$1.91	-$0.09	21% 56-215 (271)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,969.17

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$3.73

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$439.86

Value

$306.75

PnL

-$133.11

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$205.57

Value

$218.09

PnL

+$12.52

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$235.58

Value

$149.02

PnL

-$86.56

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$178.46

Value

$120.48

PnL

-$57.98

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

cigarettes

Invested

$109.2

Value

$109.2

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.22

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$3.17

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.08

Record

30%

334-774 (1108)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$0.09

Record

21%

56-215 (271)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.