Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-11-14?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 50¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$4.3K
-$146.91
43.4¢ → 50¢
+15% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL glennyorkshire | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $1.9K | $1.7K | -$238.08 | 45% 159-195 (354) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 43.9¢ | $719.21 | $744.37 | +$25.17 | 49% 3807-3970 (7777) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 43¢ | $652.45 | $675.21 | +$22.76 | 35% 438-797 (1235) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 43.3¢ | $559.67 | $588.67 | +$29.01 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 43¢ | $233.08 | $246.63 | +$13.55 | 47% 895-992 (1887) |
SU suntori | Yesavg 56.1¢ | $164.75 | $162.95 | -$1.8 | 46% 2602-3088 (5690) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $61.6 | $62.3 | +$0.7 | 53% 7046-6183 (13229) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $58.93 | $59.34 | +$0.41 | 56% 461-367 (828) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $49.68 | $50.58 | +$0.9 | 37% 1018-1700 (2718) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $7.8 | $8.07 | +$0.27 | 60% 708-480 (1188) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $2.05 | $2.25 | +$0.2 | 42% 990-1359 (2349) |
Invested
$1,916.04
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$238.08
Record
45%
159-195 (354)
Invested
$719.21
Value
$744.37
PnL
+$25.17
Record
49%
3807-3970 (7777)
Invested
$652.45
Value
$675.21
PnL
+$22.76
Record
35%
438-797 (1235)
Invested
$559.67
Value
$588.67
PnL
+$29.01
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$233.08
Value
$246.63
PnL
+$13.55
Record
47%
895-992 (1887)
Invested
$164.75
Value
$162.95
PnL
-$1.8
Record
46%
2602-3088 (5690)
Invested
$61.6
Value
$62.3
PnL
+$0.7
Record
53%
7046-6183 (13229)
Invested
$58.93
Value
$59.34
PnL
+$0.41
Record
56%
461-367 (828)
Invested
$49.68
Value
$50.58
PnL
+$0.9
Record
37%
1018-1700 (2718)
Invested
$7.8
Value
$8.07
PnL
+$0.27
Record
60%
708-480 (1188)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.25
PnL
+$0.2
Record
42%
990-1359 (2349)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
glennyorkshire
Yes — $1.7K
Flaznorp
No — $744.37
LuckyLoo
No — $675.21
GoalLineGhost
No — $588.67
SnakeBall
No — $246.63
suntori
Yes — $162.95
cigarettes
No — $62.3
LeLynxMalynx
No — $59.34
topdogbigboi
Yes — $50.58
lonmi2511
No — $8.07