Will London City Lionesses win on 2026-11-15?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 77¢ · $717 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$717.2
$17.54
76.4¢ → 76.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 75.9¢ | $217.2 | $224.34 | +$7.14 | 49% 4676-4943 (9619) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $169.2 | $175.69 | +$6.49 | 52% 2494-2286 (4780) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21¢ | $91.96 | $96.34 | +$4.38 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 75.9¢ | $77.23 | $79.35 | +$2.11 | |
LI Limousin | Noavg 76.6¢ | $133.36 | $140.17 | +$6.81 | 38% 1332-2185 (3517) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 77.8¢ | $84.23 | $87.14 | +$2.91 | 38% 1354-2217 (3571) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 76.3¢ | $67.38 | $67.09 | -$0.29 | 38% 1348-2243 (3591) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $9.5 | $9.88 | +$0.38 | 54% 6019-5096 (11115) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $8.19 | $8.39 | +$0.2 | 34% 476-910 (1386) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $7.2 | $3.04 | +$0.34 | 53% 1909-1671 (3580) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1.4 | $1.47 | +$0.07 | 48% 2555-2763 (5318) |
Invested
$217.2
Value
$224.34
PnL
+$7.14
Record
49%
4676-4943 (9619)
Invested
$169.2
Value
$175.69
PnL
+$6.49
Record
52%
2494-2286 (4780)
Both legs:
Invested
$133.36
Value
$140.17
PnL
+$6.81
Record
38%
1332-2185 (3517)
Invested
$84.23
Value
$87.14
PnL
+$2.91
Record
38%
1354-2217 (3571)
Invested
$67.38
Value
$67.09
PnL
-$0.29
Record
38%
1348-2243 (3591)
RN1<$100Invested
$9.5
Value
$9.88
PnL
+$0.38
Record
54%
6019-5096 (11115)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$8.19
Value
$8.39
PnL
+$0.2
Record
34%
476-910 (1386)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$7.2
Value
$3.04
PnL
+$0.34
Record
53%
1909-1671 (3580)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.47
PnL
+$0.07
Record
48%
2555-2763 (5318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.