Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-11-15?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 55¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Yes46¢No54¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$802.58

Smart Money Entry

28.5¢ → 54.5¢

+91% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares6,817

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,317

Combined PnL-$399.44

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 69.8¢	$4.3K	$3.1K	$-1.2K	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 69.8¢	$3.7K	$2.4K	$-1.3K
└ No leg	Noavg 45.9¢	$599.9	$712.55	+$112.65
VE Venusian	Noavg 26.6¢	$836.05	$1.4K	+$611.64	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
LI Limousin	Noavg 27¢	$829.98	$1.4K	+$584.06	38% 1332-2185 (3517)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 70.7¢	$1.3K	$941.56	-$383.18	54% 6019-5096 (11115)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 46.2¢	$245.09	$252.1	+$7.01	38% 1348-2243 (3591)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 53.1¢	$208.01	$192.43	-$15.58	52% 2494-2286 (4780)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Yesavg 72.6¢	$151.71	$151.33	-$0.37	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$81.66	$85.19	+$3.53	56% 656-516 (1172)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54¢	$47.52	$64.24	+$16.72
└ No leg	Noavg 44¢	$34.14	$20.95	-$13.19
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$17.13	$15.97	-$1.16	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$12	$11.1	-$0.9	45% 984-1181 (2165)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 49¢	$7.35	$7.58	+$0.23	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$7.09	$7.57	+$0.47	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$9.28	$4.98	+$0.6	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 43¢	$9.5	$0.57	-$0.24	53% 1909-1671 (3580)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$4,305.05

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

Yes$3,705.1569.8¢$-1.3K

No$599.945.9¢+$112.65

Venusian

Invested

$836.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$611.64

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

Limousin

Invested

$829.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$584.06

Record

38%

1332-2185 (3517)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,324.74

Value

$941.56

PnL

-$383.18

Record

54%

6019-5096 (11115)

LightParadox

Invested

$245.09

Value

$252.1

PnL

+$7.01

Record

38%

1348-2243 (3591)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$208.01

Value

$192.43

PnL

-$15.58

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

topdogbigboiCTR

Yes

Invested

$151.71

Value

$151.33

PnL

-$0.37

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.66

Value

$85.19

PnL

+$3.53

Record

56%

656-516 (1172)

Both legs:

Yes$47.5254¢+$16.72

No$34.1444¢-$13.19

suntori<$100

Invested

$17.13

Value

$15.97

PnL

-$1.16

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12

Value

$11.1

PnL

-$0.9

Record

45%

984-1181 (2165)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$7.35

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$7.09

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$0.47

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.28

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.6

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$9.5

Value

$0.57

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.