Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5)

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Atlanta Dream (25%) · Atlanta Dream at 56¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 30

Atlanta Dream56¢Golden State Valkyries44¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Atlanta Dream

Consensus Traders

Atlanta Dream 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.2K

Combined PnL

$10.97

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 55.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidAtlanta Dream at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Atlanta Dream

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Atlanta Dream56%

Golden State Valkyries45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Atlanta Dream2 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares16,014

Combined PnL+$80.07

Golden State Valkyries6 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares14,231

Combined PnL-$69.1

Atlanta Dream — 25%Golden State Valkyries — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Atlanta Dreamavg 55¢	$8.2K	$8.3K	+$75	54% 582-504 (1086)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Golden State Valkyriesavg 45¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$51.09	59% 45090-31481 (76571)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Golden State Valkyriesavg 45¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$45.25	54% 17003-14249 (31252)
└ Golden State Valkyries leg	Golden State Valkyriesavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$37.68
└ Atlanta Dream leg	Atlanta Dreamavg 53¢	$802.42	$809.99	+$7.57
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439CTR	Golden State Valkyriesavg 47¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$12.61	49% 349-362 (711)
7F 0x7f84...b057CTR	Golden State Valkyriesavg 45¢	$635.1	$628.05	-$7.06	— 1-11 (12)
FO forecastication4	Atlanta Dreamavg 53¢	$537.42	$542.49	+$5.07	49% 1139-1176 (2315)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Golden State Valkyriesavg 45¢	$51.39	$53.1	+$1.71	50% 3757-3733 (7490)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Golden State Valkyriesavg 46¢	$15.18	$15.35	+$0.17	54% 2951-2530 (5481)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Golden State Valkyriesavg 45¢	$9.83	$9.61	-$0.22	38% 365-591 (956)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Atlanta Dream

Invested

$8,249.98

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$75

Record

54%

582-504 (1086)

UpTheBluesCTR

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$4,558.05

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$51.09

Record

59%

45090-31481 (76571)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$1,917.85

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$45.25

Record

54%

17003-14249 (31252)

Both legs:

Golden State Valkyries$1,115.4345¢+$37.68

Atlanta Dream$802.4253¢+$7.57

0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439CTR

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$1,185.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$12.61

Record

49%

349-362 (711)

0x7f84...b057CTR

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$635.1

Value

$628.05

PnL

-$7.06

Record

—

1-11 (12)

forecastication4

Atlanta Dream

Invested

$537.42

Value

$542.49

PnL

+$5.07

Record

49%

1139-1176 (2315)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$51.39

Value

$53.1

PnL

+$1.71

Record

50%

3757-3733 (7490)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$15.18

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

2951-2530 (5481)

OddstormCTR<$100

Golden State Valkyries

Invested

$9.83

Value

$9.61

PnL

-$0.22

Record

38%

365-591 (956)

Research grade

AvoidAtlanta Dream at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Atlanta Dream

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Atlanta Dream wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.