Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

20 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$7.49

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 91.5¢

-1% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 20 top traders (100%)17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,592

Combined PnL+$7.49

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

202h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 92.9¢	$496.46	$497.15	+$0.69	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 92.3¢	$230.7	$232.5	+$1.8	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 92.3¢	$112.31	$113.21	+$0.9	26% 860-2483 (3343)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$65.26	$66.03	+$0.77	40% 1456-2158 (3614)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.3¢	$50.23	$50.62	+$0.39	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
LI Likaseent<$100	Noavg 93¢	$47.68	$47.68	+$0	26% 361-1008 (1369)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 93¢	$47.68	$47.68	+$0	28% 522-1370 (1892)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$47.57	$47.68	+$0.11	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$47.63	$47.68	+$0.05	28% 368-936 (1304)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 93¢	$47.68	$47.68	+$0	30% 513-1183 (1696)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 93¢	$46.5	$46.5	+$0	17% 76-374 (450)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$44.25	$44.45	+$0.2	28% 521-1360 (1881)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 93¢	$40.72	$40.72	+$0	27% 936-2514 (3450)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 88¢	$36.08	$38.13	+$2.05	41% 3118-4481 (7599)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 92¢	$27.6	$27.9	+$0.3	24% 77-243 (320)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$24.13	$24.18	+$0.05	39% 1297-2005 (3302)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 92.8¢	$21.41	$21.46	+$0.05	49% 89-93 (182)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.88	$18.88	+$0	43% 375-505 (880)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 92¢	$11.04	$11.16	+$0.12	79% 380-101 (481)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 93¢	$9.51	$9.51	+$0	47% 356-402 (758)

balthazar

Invested

$496.46

Value

$497.15

PnL

+$0.69

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$230.7

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$1.8

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

graynotebook19

Invested

$112.31

Value

$113.21

PnL

+$0.9

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$65.26

Value

$66.03

PnL

+$0.77

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$50.23

Value

$50.62

PnL

+$0.39

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

Likaseent<$100

Invested

$47.68

Value

$47.68

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

361-1008 (1369)

kaxel78<$100

Invested

$47.68

Value

$47.68

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$47.57

Value

$47.68

PnL

+$0.11

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$47.63

Value

$47.68

PnL

+$0.05

Record

28%

368-936 (1304)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$47.68

Value

$47.68

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

513-1183 (1696)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$46.5

Value

$46.5

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

akroll<$100

Invested

$44.25

Value

$44.45

PnL

+$0.2

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$40.72

Value

$40.72

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$36.08

Value

$38.13

PnL

+$2.05

Record

41%

3118-4481 (7599)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$24.13

Value

$24.18

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

1297-2005 (3302)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$21.41

Value

$21.46

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

89-93 (182)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$18.88

Value

$18.88

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

375-505 (880)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$11.04

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$0.12

Record

79%

380-101 (481)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$9.51

Value

$9.51

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

356-402 (758)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 20 top traders (100%)17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

20 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

202h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 10

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.