Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Z.ai have the best AI model on December 15, 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $173 held · ends Dec 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Dec 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$172.8

Combined PnL

-$15.75

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$169.71

Total Shares170

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.09

Total Shares617

Combined PnL-$15.89

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$79.7	$79.92	+$0.22	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.97	+$0	31% 190-428 (618)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.93	$29.97	+$0.05	30% 993-2362 (3355)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.85	-$0.12	31% 225-501 (726)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$60.9	$1.96	-$9.85	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$4.57	$0.8	-$3.77	45% 4975-6198 (11173)
iutwpfalCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1	$0.18	-$0.83	— 10-4 (14)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$0.57	$0.1	-$0.47	8% 9-110 (119)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$30.2	$0.05	-$0.97	29% 3101-7566 (10667)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$79.7

Value

$79.92

PnL

+$0.22

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

190-428 (618)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.93

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.05

Record

30%

993-2362 (3355)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.85

PnL

-$0.12

Record

31%

225-501 (726)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.9

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$9.85

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.57

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$3.77

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

iutwpfalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.83

Record

—

10-4 (14)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.47

Record

9-110 (119)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.2

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.97

Record

29%

3101-7566 (10667)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.