Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$38.77

Smart Money Entry

99.3¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL+$7.15

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.05

Total Shares1,950

Combined PnL+$31.62

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Noavg 99.3¢	$772.33	$777.55	+$5.22	97% 3262-86 (3348)
ME merod	Noavg 99.1¢	$139.74	$140.93	+$1.18	52% 2463-2294 (4757)
ZX zxc368<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$99.2	$99.95	+$0.75	98% 13071-207 (13278)
libratus1CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$1.28	$1.09	-$0.33	63% 641-369 (1010)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$4.97	$1.04	+$49.48	36% 15617-27548 (43165)
8D 8dcc906a9bCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$18.43	$0.92	-$17.52	37% 44-75 (119)

CoinTrick

Invested

$772.33

Value

$777.55

PnL

+$5.22

Record

97%

3262-86 (3348)

merod

Invested

$139.74

Value

$140.93

PnL

+$1.18

Record

52%

2463-2294 (4757)

zxc368<$100

Invested

$99.2

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.75

Record

98%

13071-207 (13278)

libratus1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.28

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$0.33

Record

63%

641-369 (1010)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.97

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$49.48

Record

36%

15617-27548 (43165)

8dcc906a9bCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.43

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$17.52

Record

37%

44-75 (119)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.