Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Z.ai be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 43¢ · $578 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$578.15
-$2.7
56.3¢ → 42.5¢
-24% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Mature
42h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 63.6¢ | $403.23 | $435.35 | +$32.12 | 41% 3122-4487 (7609) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.6¢ | $304.83 | $268.45 | -$36.37 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.5¢ | $98.4 | $166.89 | +$68.49 | |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 54.3¢ | $43.4 | $44.8 | +$1.4 | 51% 4655-4529 (9184) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Noavg 65.2¢ | $48.9 | $42 | -$6.9 | 24% 77-243 (320) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.9¢ | $29.4 | $35.84 | +$6.44 | 17% 76-374 (450) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $22.2 | $11.2 | -$4.2 | 4% 1-27 (28) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $8.4 | $8.96 | +$0.56 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
Invested
$403.23
Value
$435.35
PnL
+$32.12
Record
41%
3122-4487 (7609)
Both legs:
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$43.4
Value
$44.8
PnL
+$1.4
Record
51%
4655-4529 (9184)
Invested
$48.9
Value
$42
PnL
-$6.9
Record
24%
77-243 (320)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$35.84
PnL
+$6.44
Record
17%
76-374 (450)
Invested
$22.2
Value
$11.2
PnL
-$4.2
Record
4%
1-27 (28)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$8.96
PnL
+$0.56
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.