Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 88¢ · $93 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$92.95
-$1.49
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Mature
23h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $36.4 | $36.32 | -$0.08 | 49% 89-93 (182) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $36.75 | $35.75 | -$1 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $9.4 | $9.08 | -$0.32 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $7.52 | $7.26 | -$0.26 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $4.37 | $4.54 | +$0.17 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
Invested
$36.4
Value
$36.32
PnL
-$0.08
Record
49%
89-93 (182)
balthazar<$100Invested
$36.75
Value
$35.75
PnL
-$1
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$9.4
Value
$9.08
PnL
-$0.32
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$7.52
Value
$7.26
PnL
-$0.26
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$4.37
Value
$4.54
PnL
+$0.17
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.