Will Zendaya be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $256 held · ends Mar 15, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Mon, Mar 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$256.15

Combined PnL

$23.29

Smart Money Entry

92.5¢ → 93¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$219.94

Total Shares228

Combined PnL+$9.69

Yes2 traders

Total Value$36.21

Total Shares517

Combined PnL+$13.6

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV aviato	Noavg 92.8¢	$192.15	$200.41	+$8.26	82% 2523-542 (3065)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$16.4	$22.96	+$6.56	17% 4501-22033 (26534)
Anjun<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18.9	$19.53	+$1.43	55% 5187-4274 (9461)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$10.54	$13.25	+$7.04	34% 19258-36883 (56141)

aviato

Invested

$192.15

Value

$200.41

PnL

+$8.26

Record

82%

2523-542 (3065)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.4

Value

$22.96

PnL

+$6.56

Record

17%

4501-22033 (26534)

Anjun<$100

Invested

$18.9

Value

$19.53

PnL

+$1.43

Record

55%

5187-4274 (9461)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.54

Value

$13.25

PnL

+$7.04

Record

34%

19258-36883 (56141)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.