Will zekken play for Sentinels in 2027?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $121 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$121.3
$2.35
98.4¢ → 98.8¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.96 | $29.64 | -$0.32 | 26% 871-2505 (3376) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $29.96 | $27.35 | -$2.52 | 40% 1475-2199 (3674) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.76 | -$0.22 | 17% 93-449 (542) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.76 | -$0.22 | 25% 92-281 (373) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $18.79 | $19.12 | +$0.33 | 40% 3250-4894 (8144) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.15 | $3.36 | +$3.21 | 12% 37-269 (306) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $4.44 | $2.02 | +$1.07 | 39% 66-105 (171) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.8¢ | $27.43 | $0.09 | +$0.99 | 27% 949-2550 (3499) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $0.06 | $0.09 | +$0.03 | 18% 81-367 (448) |
Invested
$29.96
Value
$29.64
PnL
-$0.32
Record
26%
871-2505 (3376)
Invested
$29.96
Value
$27.35
PnL
-$2.52
Record
40%
1475-2199 (3674)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.76
PnL
-$0.22
Record
17%
93-449 (542)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.76
PnL
-$0.22
Record
25%
92-281 (373)
Invested
$18.79
Value
$19.12
PnL
+$0.33
Record
40%
3250-4894 (8144)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$3.21
Record
12%
37-269 (306)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$4.44
Value
$2.02
PnL
+$1.07
Record
39%
66-105 (171)
Invested
$27.43
Value
$0.09
PnL
+$0.99
Record
27%
949-2550 (3499)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.09
PnL
+$0.03
Record
18%
81-367 (448)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.