Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 13 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Zack Wheeler win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

13 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.95

Combined PnL

-$7.11

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$0.95

Total Shares1,895

Combined PnL-$7.11

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$44.07	$0.71	-$43.36	48% 2013-2143 (4156)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.24	$0.06	-$0.18	19% 2981-12794 (15775)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$77.49	$0.03	-$10.65	50% 2630-2578 (5208)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.6	$0.03	-$0.84	34% 2142-4117 (6259)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.43	$0.03	-$0.6	37% 3313-5705 (9018)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.93	$0.02	-$0.91	16% 4635-23687 (28322)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.44	38% 16029-25855 (41884)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$89.69	$0.02	+$50.4	44% 13945-17925 (31870)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.33	— 6-1 (7)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	+$0	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.2	45% 7018-8417 (15435)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0	+$0	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yes	$0	$0	+$0	28% 3048-7956 (11004)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.07

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$43.36

Record

48%

2013-2143 (4156)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.24

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.18

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

peepeepooppoopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.49

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$10.65

Record

50%

2630-2578 (5208)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.84

Record

34%

2142-4117 (6259)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.6

Record

37%

3313-5705 (9018)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.91

Record

16%

4635-23687 (28322)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.44

Record

38%

16029-25855 (41884)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.69

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$50.4

Record

44%

13945-17925 (31870)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.33

Record

—

6-1 (7)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.2

Record

45%

7018-8417 (15435)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

28%

3048-7956 (11004)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 13 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Late

119h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.