Will Young Kim win the CA-40 House seat?
11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (85%) · No at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
13
No 85%
$1.2K
$283.38
60.8¢ → 92.1¢
+52% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Late
310h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Optimus- | Noavg 54.3¢ | $200 | $338.68 | +$138.68 | 61% 1210-772 (1982) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 54.1¢ | $584.15 | $324.17 | +$50.36 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 72¢ | $27.06 | $211.83 | +$132.19 | 41% 6218-9125 (15343) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 59.3¢ | $162.08 | $106.66 | -$3.36 | 14% 461-2758 (3219) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyName<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $55.91 | $45.86 | -$1.97 | 51% 258-247 (505) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $23.57 | $31.43 | +$7.86 | 44% 6482-8172 (14654) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $18.93 | $27.33 | +$8.4 | 53% 29258-26174 (55432) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $22.87 | $25.5 | +$2.63 | 42% 7028-9819 (16847) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $11.8 | $18.4 | +$6.6 | 43% 3133-4188 (7321) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 10.1¢ | $3.65 | $15.66 | +$18.57 | 72% 13979-5358 (19337) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $14.12 | $13.8 | -$0.32 | 59% 11839-8177 (20016) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 59.8¢ | $129.49 | $8.97 | -$69.67 | 48% 1884-2013 (3897) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $9.13 | $2.53 | -$6.59 | 50% 1278-1291 (2569) |
Optimus-Invested
$200
Value
$338.68
PnL
+$138.68
Record
61%
1210-772 (1982)
Invested
$584.15
Value
$324.17
PnL
+$50.36
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
HaradwaithInvested
$27.06
Value
$211.83
PnL
+$132.19
Record
41%
6218-9125 (15343)
IstarothInvested
$162.08
Value
$106.66
PnL
-$3.36
Record
14%
461-2758 (3219)
Invested
$55.91
Value
$45.86
PnL
-$1.97
Record
51%
258-247 (505)
Invested
$23.57
Value
$31.43
PnL
+$7.86
Record
44%
6482-8172 (14654)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18.93
Value
$27.33
PnL
+$8.4
Record
53%
29258-26174 (55432)
Invested
$22.87
Value
$25.5
PnL
+$2.63
Record
42%
7028-9819 (16847)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$18.4
PnL
+$6.6
Record
43%
3133-4188 (7321)
Invested
$3.65
Value
$15.66
PnL
+$18.57
Record
72%
13979-5358 (19337)
Invested
$14.12
Value
$13.8
PnL
-$0.32
Record
59%
11839-8177 (20016)
Invested
$129.49
Value
$8.97
PnL
-$69.67
Record
48%
1884-2013 (3897)
Invested
$9.13
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$6.59
Record
50%
1278-1291 (2569)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.