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3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 58¢ · $147 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$147.17
$2
57.5¢ → 58¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $70.8 | $69.6 | -$1.2 | 53% 5727-5123 (10850) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 55.1¢ | $49.17 | $51.46 | +$2.28 | 41% 3127-4493 (7620) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $20 | $21 | +$1 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $5.2 | $5.12 | -$0.09 | 40% 1457-2158 (3615) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.