Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "You Can See Everything" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 22¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 22, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$601.28
45.7¢ → 22¢
-52% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Yesavg 70.7¢ | $601.9 | $651.7 | +$49.8 | 50% 1647-1630 (3277) |
BA banepirCTR | Noavg 27¢ | $404.99 | $442.49 | -$52.49 | 49% 445-460 (905) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Noavg 65.5¢ | $926.73 | $417.63 | -$594.04 | 49% 1812-1894 (3706) |
 tetrase | Yesavg 77¢ | $308 | $304 | -$4 | 60% 801-535 (1336) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100 | Noavg 32.7¢ | $303.49 | $224.59 | +$16.09 | 36% 14842-26964 (41806) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 32.7¢ | $141.66 | $127.69 | +$2.44 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $74.92 | $96.9 | +$13.66 | |
HE HerrieDavis | Yesavg 76.9¢ | $107.89 | $106.64 | -$0.54 | 36% 2027-3621 (5648) |
Invested
$601.9
Value
$651.7
PnL
+$49.8
Record
50%
1647-1630 (3277)
Invested
$404.99
Value
$442.49
PnL
-$52.49
Record
49%
445-460 (905)
0xdc3E831cadCTRInvested
$926.73
Value
$417.63
PnL
-$594.04
Record
49%
1812-1894 (3706)
tetraseInvested
$308
Value
$304
PnL
-$4
Record
60%
801-535 (1336)
Invested
$303.49
Value
$224.59
PnL
+$16.09
Record
36%
14842-26964 (41806)
Both legs:
Invested
$107.89
Value
$106.64
PnL
-$0.54
Record
36%
2027-3621 (5648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.