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2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 78¢ · $658 held · ends Mar 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$657.91
$38.18
75¢ → 78¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nostdam | Yesavg 73.4¢ | $316.33 | $303.06 | -$13.27 | 54% 1426-1223 (2649) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 81.2¢ | $144.42 | $141.08 | -$3.02 | 23% 290-994 (1284) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 81.2¢ | $114.59 | $110.04 | -$4.53 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 20.9¢ | $29.52 | $31.04 | +$1.52 | |
 Talophex<$100 | Yesavg 81.2¢ | $83.9 | $78 | -$5.9 | 91% 915-94 (1009) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Noavg 16.6¢ | $64.76 | $75.87 | +$11.11 | 50% 1652-1638 (3290) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 14.9¢ | $745.69 | $59.9 | +$46.23 | 36% 15138-27265 (42403) |
NostdamInvested
$316.33
Value
$303.06
PnL
-$13.27
Record
54%
1426-1223 (2649)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$144.42
Value
$141.08
PnL
-$3.02
Record
23%
290-994 (1284)
Both legs:
Talophex<$100Invested
$83.9
Value
$78
PnL
-$5.9
Record
91%
915-94 (1009)
Invested
$64.76
Value
$75.87
PnL
+$11.11
Record
50%
1652-1638 (3290)
Invested
$745.69
Value
$59.9
PnL
+$46.23
Record
36%
15138-27265 (42403)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.