Will Yashar win less than 16% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 86¢ · $943 held · ends Nov 30

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$942.86

Combined PnL

-$43.04

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 85.5¢

+14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$468.82

Total Shares470

Combined PnL-$11.04

Yes1 trader

Total Value$42

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$32

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 74.9¢	$576.55	$464.03	-$14.64	27% 281-769 (1050)
ME melonmanmARB<$100	Noavg 78.3¢	$257.58	$250.83	-$6.75	65% 484-260 (744)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.3¢	$196.46	$200.66	+$4.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28.4¢	$71.16	$50.17	-$10.96
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$733.72	$181.22	+$21.08	36% 14842-26964 (41806)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.3¢	$94.28	$112	-$81.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 28¢	$92.39	$69.22	+$102.83
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.5¢	$69	$42	-$32	41% 1953-2759 (4712)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 62¢	$12.4	$4.78	+$3.6	42% 5193-7116 (12309)

Istaroth

Invested

$576.55

Value

$464.03

PnL

-$14.64

Record

27%

281-769 (1050)

melonmanmARB<$100

Invested

$257.58

Value

$250.83

PnL

-$6.75

Record

65%

484-260 (744)

Both legs:

No$196.4678.3¢+$4.21

Yes$71.1628.4¢-$10.96

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$733.72

Value

$181.22

PnL

+$21.08

Record

36%

14842-26964 (41806)

Both legs:

Invested

$69

Value

$42

PnL

-$32

Record

41%

1953-2759 (4712)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$3.6

Record

42%

5193-7116 (12309)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.0%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.