Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Yariv Levin receive the second mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $90 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$90.02

Combined PnL

$0.15

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$89.96

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$0.05

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares126

Combined PnL+$0.11

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$63.39	$63.42	+$0.03	28% 1073-2764 (3837)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$20.46	$20.47	+$0.01	59% 824-563 (1387)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.06	$6.07	+$0	58% 818-587 (1405)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.39	$0.02	-$0.37	43% 5158-6923 (12081)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$26.29	$0.02	-$0.53	28% 3256-8289 (11545)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.29	$0.01	-$0.28	38% 306-500 (806)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$39.08	$0.01	+$0.53	38% 3738-6054 (9792)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$0.19	$0	-$0.18	34% 303-588 (891)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$61.9	$0	+$0.93	31% 1097-2455 (3552)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$63.39

Value

$63.42

PnL

+$0.03

Record

28%

1073-2764 (3837)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$20.46

Value

$20.47

PnL

+$0.01

Record

59%

824-563 (1387)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.06

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

818-587 (1405)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.37

Record

43%

5158-6923 (12081)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.29

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.53

Record

28%

3256-8289 (11545)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.28

Record

38%

306-500 (806)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.08

Value

$0.01

PnL

+$0.53

Record

38%

3738-6054 (9792)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

PnL

-$0.18

Record

34%

303-588 (891)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$61.9

Value

PnL

+$0.93

Record

31%

1097-2455 (3552)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Late

67h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9423.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

9523.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.