Will Yair Lapid be the next Speaker of the Knesset?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 91%
$1.3K
$32.8
95.3¢ → 98.8¢
+4% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Late
203h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99¢ | $587.81 | $586.58 | -$1.23 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
 balthazar | Noavg 92¢ | $154.99 | $166.3 | +$11.31 | 50% 4568-4480 (9048) |
HA haveagoodday | Noavg 94¢ | $153.04 | $160.81 | +$7.77 | 40% 1424-2156 (3580) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 97.8¢ | $127.85 | $129.06 | +$1.21 | 8% 34-370 (404) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96.2¢ | $86.6 | $88.88 | +$2.28 | 29% 2568-6178 (8746) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $49.8 | $59.25 | +$9.45 | 53% 5455-4894 (10349) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 81.5¢ | $48.91 | $59.25 | +$10.34 | 25% 834-2479 (3313) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $26.7 | $29.63 | +$2.93 | 18% 61-275 (336) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $13.16 | $13.83 | +$0.67 | 78% 252-71 (323) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $7.52 | $7.9 | +$0.38 | 36% 3038-5350 (8388) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $15.55 | $3.26 | -$12.29 | 41% 3063-4447 (7510) |
Invested
$587.81
Value
$586.58
PnL
-$1.23
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
balthazarInvested
$154.99
Value
$166.3
PnL
+$11.31
Record
50%
4568-4480 (9048)
Invested
$153.04
Value
$160.81
PnL
+$7.77
Record
40%
1424-2156 (3580)
Invested
$127.85
Value
$129.06
PnL
+$1.21
Record
8%
34-370 (404)
Invested
$86.6
Value
$88.88
PnL
+$2.28
Record
29%
2568-6178 (8746)
Invested
$49.8
Value
$59.25
PnL
+$9.45
Record
53%
5455-4894 (10349)
Invested
$48.91
Value
$59.25
PnL
+$10.34
Record
25%
834-2479 (3313)
Invested
$26.7
Value
$29.63
PnL
+$2.93
Record
18%
61-275 (336)
Invested
$13.16
Value
$13.83
PnL
+$0.67
Record
78%
252-71 (323)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$7.52
Value
$7.9
PnL
+$0.38
Record
36%
3038-5350 (8388)
Invested
$15.55
Value
$3.26
PnL
-$12.29
Record
41%
3063-4447 (7510)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.