Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 1, 2027

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Mon, Mar 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$146.74

Smart Money Entry

82.2¢ → 78¢

-5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$460.07

Total Shares534

Combined PnL+$92.96

Yes3 traders

Total Value$213.43

Total Shares965

Combined PnL+$53.78

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

288h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 81.8¢	$540.14	$480.23	-$8.69	14% 461-2750 (3211)
└ No leg	Noavg 81.8¢	$392.67	$364.98	-$43.64
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 19.9¢	$95.38	$115.25	+$34.95
2B9S	Noavg 77.8¢	$271.77	$264.2	+$16.12	18% 4279-20045 (24324)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$951.35	$263.25	+$43.29	35% 18146-33983 (52129)
└ No leg	Noavg 78.4¢	$209.57	$205.9	-$163.71
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.3¢	$40.56	$57.35	+$207
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yesavg 18.5¢	$175.11	$193.94	+$36.64	45% 2819-3389 (6208)
Haradwaith	Noavg 88.9¢	$141.34	$125.61	+$77.99	42% 5392-7314 (12706)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$25.3	$24.6	-$0.7	59% 11831-8157 (19988)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$16.9	$16.4	-$0.5	42% 7010-9803 (16813)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 94¢	$18.37	$15.54	+$6.64	73% 12861-4791 (17652)
LucerysCTR	Yes	$179.05	$14.69	+$15.79	77% 12521-3667 (16188)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$26.64	$13.73	-$6.58	58% 19455-14308 (33763)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$3.45	$4.8	+$1.35	53% 8223-7324 (15547)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$540.14

Value

$480.23

PnL

-$8.69

Record

14%

461-2750 (3211)

Both legs:

No$392.6781.8¢-$43.64

Yes$95.3819.9¢+$34.95

2B9S

Invested

$271.77

Value

$264.2

PnL

+$16.12

Record

18%

4279-20045 (24324)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$951.35

Value

$263.25

PnL

+$43.29

Record

35%

18146-33983 (52129)

Both legs:

No$209.5778.4¢-$163.71

Yes$40.5616.3¢+$207

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$175.11

Value

$193.94

PnL

+$36.64

Record

45%

2819-3389 (6208)

Haradwaith

Invested

$141.34

Value

$125.61

PnL

+$77.99

Record

42%

5392-7314 (12706)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$25.3

Value

$24.6

PnL

-$0.7

Record

59%

11831-8157 (19988)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$16.9

Value

$16.4

PnL

-$0.5

Record

42%

7010-9803 (16813)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$18.37

Value

$15.54

PnL

+$6.64

Record

73%

12861-4791 (17652)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$179.05

Value

$14.69

PnL

+$15.79

Record

77%

12521-3667 (16188)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.64

Value

$13.73

PnL

-$6.58

Record

58%

19455-14308 (33763)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.45

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$1.35

Record

53%

8223-7324 (15547)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

288h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

5 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.0%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.