Will XRP reach $1.40 in November?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.7K
$38.34
87.4¢ → 92.5¢
+6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$83.32 | 66% 56-29 (85) |
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $170.37 | $131.05 | -$39.32 | — 2-1 (3) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.4¢ | $26.89 | $21.53 | -$5.36 | 84% 62-12 (74) |
SH Sharky6999<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $7.06 | $7.25 | +$0.2 | 97% 38-1 (39) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $2.97 | $2.48 | -$0.5 | 41% 3094-4459 (7553) |
Invested
$1,426.94
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$83.32
Record
66%
56-29 (85)
Invested
$170.37
Value
$131.05
PnL
-$39.32
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$26.89
Value
$21.53
PnL
-$5.36
Record
84%
62-12 (74)
Invested
$7.06
Value
$7.25
PnL
+$0.2
Record
97%
38-1 (39)
Invested
$2.97
Value
$2.48
PnL
-$0.5
Record
41%
3094-4459 (7553)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.