Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$14.93

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 88.4¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,004

Combined PnL+$10.15

Yes4 traders

Total Value$314.36

Total Shares2,821

Combined PnL+$4.78

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868	Noavg 89.3¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$20.69	—
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4	Noavg 87.4¢	$941.65	$679.86	+$21.77	— 1-0 (1)
SH Sharky6999	Noavg 84.4¢	$171.33	$179.15	+$7.82	99% 71-1 (72)
BT btnaCTR	Yesavg 10.6¢	$125.12	$137.26	+$12.14	79% 19-5 (24)
0X 0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR	Yesavg 10.6¢	$123.58	$122.76	-$0.82	— 2-1 (3)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.5¢	$66.9	$53.46	-$13.44	45% 13-16 (29)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 83.8¢	$16.92	$17.85	+$0.93	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
TO Tokor<$100	Noavg 85¢	$8.5	$8.83	+$0.32	51% 92-89 (181)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$25.9	$0.89	+$6.9	47% 102-115 (217)

0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868

Invested

$1,785.69

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$20.69

Record

—

x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4

Invested

$941.65

Value

$679.86

PnL

+$21.77

Record

—

1-0 (1)

Sharky6999

Invested

$171.33

Value

$179.15

PnL

+$7.82

Record

99%

71-1 (72)

btnaCTR

Yes

Invested

$125.12

Value

$137.26

PnL

+$12.14

Record

79%

19-5 (24)

0xf705fa045201391d9632b7f3cde06a5e24453ca7CTR

Yes

Invested

$123.58

Value

$122.76

PnL

-$0.82

Record

—

2-1 (3)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.9

Value

$53.46

PnL

-$13.44

Record

45%

13-16 (29)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$16.92

Value

$17.85

PnL

+$0.93

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

Tokor<$100

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.83

PnL

+$0.32

Record

51%

92-89 (181)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.9

Value

$0.89

PnL

+$6.9

Record

47%

102-115 (217)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.1%

88.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.