Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 37¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1

Yes37¢No63¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$82.24

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 37.2¢

-16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$377.96

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL-$74.89

No7 traders

Total Value$365.53

Total Shares579

Combined PnL-$7.36

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 44.3¢	$442.53	$368.5	-$74.03	37% 410-712 (1122)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$1.0K	$286.71	+$25.02	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.3¢	$241.99	$227.03	-$103.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.8¢	$44.97	$59.67	+$128.82
balthazar	Noavg 62.8¢	$221.68	$219.83	+$1.38	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$82.78	$129.59	+$46.81	27% 6898-18905 (25803)
└ No leg	Noavg 56.3¢	$79.42	$89.02	+$9.61
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.1¢	$3.37	$40.57	+$37.2
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$112.27	$110	-$1.76	15% 498-2922 (3420)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.5¢	$79.77	$69.47	-$10.31
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.1¢	$32.03	$40.54	+$8.55
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 66.2¢	$66.22	$79.74	-$5.47	53% 22809-20010 (42819)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 65.4¢	$19.62	$18.84	-$0.78	51% 3734-3571 (7305)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 65.4¢	$15.67	$15.04	-$0.63	27% 527-1428 (1955)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$14.12	$13.14	-$0.99	50% 706-713 (1419)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 67.3¢	$13.46	$12.63	-$0.83	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.2¢	$10.32	$9.46	-$0.86	53% 8266-7377 (15643)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 65.9¢	$13.21	$6.31	-$0.03	59% 11938-8372 (20310)

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$442.53

Value

$368.5

PnL

-$74.03

Record

37%

410-712 (1122)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,027.42

Value

$286.71

PnL

+$25.02

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Both legs:

No$241.9967.3¢-$103.8

Yes$44.9727.8¢+$128.82

balthazar

Invested

$221.68

Value

$219.83

PnL

+$1.38

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Invested

$82.78

Value

$129.59

PnL

+$46.81

Record

27%

6898-18905 (25803)

Both legs:

No$79.4256.3¢+$9.61

Yes$3.373.1¢+$37.2

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$112.27

Value

$110

PnL

-$1.76

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

Both legs:

No$79.7772.5¢-$10.31

Yes$32.0329.1¢+$8.55

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$66.22

Value

$79.74

PnL

-$5.47

Record

53%

22809-20010 (42819)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$19.62

Value

$18.84

PnL

-$0.78

Record

51%

3734-3571 (7305)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$15.67

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$0.63

Record

27%

527-1428 (1955)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$14.12

Value

$13.14

PnL

-$0.99

Record

50%

706-713 (1419)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$13.46

Value

$12.63

PnL

-$0.83

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.32

Value

$9.46

PnL

-$0.86

Record

53%

8266-7377 (15643)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$13.21

Value

$6.31

PnL

-$0.03

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 37%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.1%

37.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$155.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

255.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.