Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 37¢ · $614 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$614.31
-$70.35
44.1¢ → 37.5¢
-15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
69h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TR troimCTR | Yesavg 44.3¢ | $442.53 | $371 | -$74.03 | 36% 411-716 (1127) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 67.3¢ | $120.34 | $126.65 | +$6.3 | 34% 19214-36845 (56059) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 66.2¢ | $66.22 | $80.94 | -$4.4 | 53% 23594-20788 (44382) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $17.46 | $19.79 | +$2.34 | 26% 7314-21090 (28404) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.2¢ | $10.32 | $9.52 | -$0.77 | 53% 8570-7640 (16210) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $19.38 | $6.41 | +$0.2 | 54% 12480-10794 (23274) |
Invested
$442.53
Value
$371
PnL
-$74.03
Record
36%
411-716 (1127)
Invested
$120.34
Value
$126.65
PnL
+$6.3
Record
34%
19214-36845 (56059)
Invested
$66.22
Value
$80.94
PnL
-$4.4
Record
53%
23594-20788 (44382)
Invested
$17.46
Value
$19.79
PnL
+$2.34
Record
26%
7314-21090 (28404)
Invested
$10.32
Value
$9.52
PnL
-$0.77
Record
53%
8570-7640 (16210)
Invested
$19.38
Value
$6.41
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
12480-10794 (23274)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.