Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$2.08
-$126.68
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
532h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $22.55 | $0.78 | -$90.64 | 35% 16906-31245 (48151) |
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $19.14 | $0.67 | -$18.47 | 31% 2176-4867 (7043) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $8.86 | $0.31 | -$8.55 | 44% 2038-2632 (4670) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $6.85 | $0.24 | -$6.61 | 39% 448-709 (1157) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $2.49 | $0.09 | -$2.41 | 17% 221-1047 (1268) |
Invested
$22.55
Value
$0.78
PnL
-$90.64
Record
35%
16906-31245 (48151)
Invested
$19.14
Value
$0.67
PnL
-$18.47
Record
31%
2176-4867 (7043)
Invested
$8.86
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$8.55
Record
44%
2038-2632 (4670)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$0.24
PnL
-$6.61
Record
39%
448-709 (1157)
Invested
$2.49
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$2.41
Record
17%
221-1047 (1268)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.