Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Xiaomi have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $73 held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 75%
$72.67
-$11.03
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $52.51 | $52.53 | +$0.03 | 17% 91-447 (538) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | $19.99 | +$0.01 | 25% 90-272 (362) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $4.24 | $0.07 | -$4.17 | 47% 4803-5424 (10227) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $56.1 | $0.06 | -$5.07 | 26% 868-2503 (3371) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.66 | $0.01 | -$0.65 | 40% 3231-4852 (8083) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.3 | $0.01 | -$0.3 | 30% 2939-6893 (9832) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.15 | $0 | -$0.15 | 39% 1385-2190 (3575) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $20.12 | $0 | -$0.73 | 40% 1474-2196 (3670) |
Invested
$52.51
Value
$52.53
PnL
+$0.03
Record
17%
91-447 (538)
Invested
$19.98
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$0.01
Record
25%
90-272 (362)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$4.24
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$4.17
Record
47%
4803-5424 (10227)
Invested
$56.1
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$5.07
Record
26%
868-2503 (3371)
Invested
$0.66
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.65
Record
40%
3231-4852 (8083)
Invested
$0.3
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.3
Record
30%
2939-6893 (9832)
Invested
$0.15
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.15
Record
39%
1385-2190 (3575)
Invested
$20.12
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.73
Record
40%
1474-2196 (3670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.