Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 62¢ · $261 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$261.12
-$77.52
68.9¢ → 62¢
-10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Mature
28h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 68.5¢ | $203.83 | $159.94 | -$43.88 | 41% 3118-4481 (7599) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $89.72 | $64.13 | -$25.6 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 62.5¢ | $27.18 | $22.3 | -$4.88 | 49% 89-93 (182) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $9.28 | $9.28 | -$0 | 48% 1228-1315 (2543) |
AN anothercoin<$100 | Noavg 76.9¢ | $6.15 | $4.1 | -$2.05 | 39% 1297-2005 (3302) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 51.3¢ | $1.05 | $1.05 | -$0 | 53% 5667-5090 (10757) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $7.21 | $0.31 | -$1.11 | 10% 3-26 (29) |
Invested
$203.83
Value
$159.94
PnL
-$43.88
Record
41%
3118-4481 (7599)
Invested
$89.72
Value
$64.13
PnL
-$25.6
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$27.18
Value
$22.3
PnL
-$4.88
Record
49%
89-93 (182)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$9.28
Value
$9.28
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1228-1315 (2543)
Invested
$6.15
Value
$4.1
PnL
-$2.05
Record
39%
1297-2005 (3302)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
5667-5090 (10757)
Invested
$7.21
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$1.11
Record
10%
3-26 (29)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.