Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in November?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 73¢ · $7K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$7.2K
$231.01
56.4¢ → 72.5¢
+28% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
118h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Noavg 54.8¢ | $2.4K | $3.1K | +$782.52 | — 3-4 (7) |
C0 C03B | Noavg 51.8¢ | $938.31 | $1.3K | +$383.81 | — 0-4 (4) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Yesavg 50.9¢ | $2.4K | $1.3K | $-1.1K | 0% 0-71 (71) |
 boyau | Noavg 62.7¢ | $885.32 | $1.0K | +$145.15 | — 0-1 (1) |
TE test456y78 | Noavg 73.3¢ | $263.34 | $262.34 | -$1 | 0% 0-31 (31) |
0X 0x5F45b60C29d6e4D55c0bFd8dDD39ad45C5e0a77A-1761473032186 | Noavg 60¢ | $121.2 | $147.46 | +$26.26 | — |
AL Albert 1953<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $43.51 | $61.09 | +$17.58 | — 1-12 (13) |
Invested
$2,359.83
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$782.52
Record
—
3-4 (7)
Invested
$938.31
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$383.81
Record
—
0-4 (4)
Invested
$2,391.83
Value
$1.3K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
0%
0-71 (71)
boyauInvested
$885.32
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$145.15
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$263.34
Value
$262.34
PnL
-$1
Record
0%
0-31 (31)
Invested
$121.2
Value
$147.46
PnL
+$26.26
Record
—
Invested
$43.51
Value
$61.09
PnL
+$17.58
Record
—
1-12 (13)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.