Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in November?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 65¢ · $12K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$12.1K
$1.4K
60¢ → 64.5¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
69h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Yesavg 49.3¢ | $2.7K | $3.7K | +$958.88 | 62% 868-536 (1404) |
 boyau | Yesavg 77.6¢ | $4.3K | $3.6K | -$606.7 | 44% 232-298 (530) |
HU hugecaulkCTR | Noavg 32.6¢ | $2.9K | $3.6K | +$645.3 | 45% 17-21 (38) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Yesavg 47.3¢ | $298.86 | $505.85 | +$206.98 | 52% 252-230 (482) |
TE test456y78 | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $126.5 | $421.85 | +$295.35 | 39% 112-172 (284) |
 clazzy1CTR | Noavg 34¢ | $170 | $170 | +$0 | 65% 503-275 (778) |
 PippiTraderCTR | Noavg 43.7¢ | $726.54 | $95.2 | -$69.2 | 59% 441-305 (746) |
AL Albert 1953<$100 | Yesavg 64.9¢ | $5.3 | $5.9 | +$0.6 | 50% 1149-1163 (2312) |
Invested
$2,740.15
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$958.88
Record
62%
868-536 (1404)
boyauInvested
$4,252.53
Value
$3.6K
PnL
-$606.7
Record
44%
232-298 (530)
Invested
$2,910.86
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$645.3
Record
45%
17-21 (38)
Invested
$298.86
Value
$505.85
PnL
+$206.98
Record
52%
252-230 (482)
Invested
$126.5
Value
$421.85
PnL
+$295.35
Record
39%
112-172 (284)
clazzy1CTRInvested
$170
Value
$170
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
503-275 (778)
PippiTraderCTRInvested
$726.54
Value
$95.2
PnL
-$69.2
Record
59%
441-305 (746)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5.9
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
1149-1163 (2312)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.