Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (82%). 6 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in November?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (55%) · Yes at 18¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 1

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 55%

Total Value

$4.4K

Combined PnL

-$136.97

Smart Money Entry

19.2¢ → 18¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares12,497

Combined PnL-$40.97

No5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,666

Combined PnL-$96

Yes — 55%No — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
boyauCTR	Yesavg 26.2¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$540.61	44% 232-298 (530)
C0 C03B	Noavg 72¢	$720	$830	+$110	85% 796-139 (935)
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036	Noavg 93.6¢	$893.91	$787.65	-$201.71	82% 236-52 (288)
PippiTrader	Noavg 80.6¢	$402.74	$412.3	+$9.56	59% 437-303 (740)
TE test456y78CTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$106.96	$389.03	+$282.06	40% 111-170 (281)
TO TokorCTR	Yesavg 14.8¢	$279.87	$320.42	+$40.55	62% 865-534 (1399)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$80.88	$222.42	+$141.55	52% 251-230 (481)
AL Albert 1953CTR	Yesavg 16.5¢	$174	$210	+$36	50% 1148-1163 (2311)
Haradwaith	Noavg 84¢	$168	$165	-$13	40% 6536-9791 (16327)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 90¢	$10.29	$9.43	-$0.86	77% 12698-3875 (16573)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Yesavg 22.7¢	$2.27	$1.75	-$0.52	40% 340-507 (847)

boyauCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,544.94

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$540.61

Record

44%

232-298 (530)

C03B

Invested

$720

Value

$830

PnL

+$110

Record

85%

796-139 (935)

0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036

Invested

$893.91

Value

$787.65

PnL

-$201.71

Record

82%

236-52 (288)

PippiTrader

Invested

$402.74

Value

$412.3

PnL

+$9.56

Record

59%

437-303 (740)

test456y78CTR

Yes

Invested

$106.96

Value

$389.03

PnL

+$282.06

Record

40%

111-170 (281)

TokorCTR

Yes

Invested

$279.87

Value

$320.42

PnL

+$40.55

Record

62%

865-534 (1399)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$80.88

Value

$222.42

PnL

+$141.55

Record

52%

251-230 (481)

Albert 1953CTR

Yes

Invested

$174

Value

$210

PnL

+$36

Record

50%

1148-1163 (2311)

Haradwaith

Invested

$168

Value

$165

PnL

-$13

Record

40%

6536-9791 (16327)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$10.29

Value

$9.43

PnL

-$0.86

Record

77%

12698-3875 (16573)

196874353278CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.27

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.52

Record

40%

340-507 (847)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 11 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors No 82%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

78h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (10 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrYes 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.6%

18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$409.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

509.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.