Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in November?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 92¢ · $7K held · ends Dec 1

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$209.42

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 91.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares6,611

Combined PnL-$71.47

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares12,723

Combined PnL+$280.89

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VO Votei14Voude22	Noavg 91.3¢	$3.6K	$3.6K	-$12.96	77% 355-107 (462)
AV Avamax	Noavg 93¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$24.57	80% 433-106 (539)
0X 0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036	Noavg 94.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$34.12	82% 236-52 (288)
boyauCTR	Yesavg 9¢	$450	$445	-$5	44% 232-298 (530)
TE test456y78CTR	Yesavg 3.4¢	$104.13	$317.13	+$213	40% 111-170 (281)
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR	Yesavg 8.5¢	$174.99	$232.47	+$57.48	52% 251-230 (481)
PippiTrader	Noavg 90.4¢	$126.49	$127.39	+$0.9	59% 433-300 (733)
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.2¢	$76.39	$90.81	+$14.42	50% 1148-1163 (2311)
Talophex<$100	Noavg 90¢	$45	$45.5	-$0.15	91% 1010-98 (1108)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.4¢	$16.8	$16.47	+$1.03	40% 6509-9769 (16278)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$8.02	$7.45	-$0.57	77% 12684-3870 (16554)
19 196874353278CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.46	$0.43	-$0.03	40% 322-492 (814)

Votei14Voude22

Invested

$3,612.96

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$12.96

Record

77%

355-107 (462)

Avamax

Invested

$1,289.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$24.57

Record

80%

433-106 (539)

0x963137a0BA0B02EBf6F37710023Cc1B0303289A1-1764031525036

Invested

$1,102.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$34.12

Record

82%

236-52 (288)

boyauCTR

Yes

Invested

$450

Value

$445

PnL

-$5

Record

44%

232-298 (530)

test456y78CTR

Yes

Invested

$104.13

Value

$317.13

PnL

+$213

Record

40%

111-170 (281)

Dimpled-FoalCTR

Yes

Invested

$174.99

Value

$232.47

PnL

+$57.48

Record

52%

251-230 (481)

PippiTrader

Invested

$126.49

Value

$127.39

PnL

+$0.9

Record

59%

433-300 (733)

Albert 1953CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.39

Value

$90.81

PnL

+$14.42

Record

50%

1148-1163 (2311)

Talophex<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$45.5

PnL

-$0.15

Record

91%

1010-98 (1108)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.8

Value

$16.47

PnL

+$1.03

Record

40%

6509-9769 (16278)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$8.02

Value

$7.45

PnL

-$0.57

Record

77%

12684-3870 (16554)

196874353278CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.46

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

40%

322-492 (814)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (5 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.