Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in November?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 98¢ · $23K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$22.7K
$9.49
98.3¢ → 97.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
101h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chriszyy3 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $19.7K | $19.6K | -$84.44 | — |
AV Avamax | Noavg 98.2¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$7.12 | — 0-1 (1) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $231.71 | $258.53 | +$26.82 | — |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $151.15 | $228.4 | +$77.24 | — 3-4 (7) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98.7¢ | $200.46 | $196.25 | +$0.07 | — 4-2 (6) |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 98.2¢ | $196.4 | $195.8 | -$0.6 | — 2-0 (2) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $78.39 | $76.74 | -$0.47 | — 0-17 (17) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $44.44 | $42.42 | -$2.02 | — 1-12 (13) |
Invested
$19,663.46
Value
$19.6K
PnL
-$84.44
Record
—
Invested
$2,208.54
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$7.12
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$231.71
Value
$258.53
PnL
+$26.82
Record
—
Invested
$151.15
Value
$228.4
PnL
+$77.24
Record
—
3-4 (7)
Invested
$200.46
Value
$196.25
PnL
+$0.07
Record
—
4-2 (6)
HaradwaithInvested
$196.4
Value
$195.8
PnL
-$0.6
Record
—
2-0 (2)
Talophex<$100Invested
$78.39
Value
$76.74
PnL
-$0.47
Record
—
0-17 (17)
Invested
$44.44
Value
$42.42
PnL
-$2.02
Record
—
1-12 (13)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.