Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 69¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 15, 2027

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Fri, Jan 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$272.31

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 69.3¢

-12% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$412.87

Total Shares733

Combined PnL-$180.24

Yes5 traders

Total Value$226.28

Total Shares712

Combined PnL-$92.08

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

810h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754ARB<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$51.61	61% 14-9 (23)
└ No leg	Noavg 57.5¢	$863.22	$844.77	-$18.45
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.2¢	$277.19	$235.88	-$33.16
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 55¢	$1.2K	$784.46	-$220.07	15% 498-2922 (3420)
└ No leg	Noavg 55¢	$499.66	$512.01	-$13.88
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52.7¢	$478.82	$272.45	-$206.19
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 67.2¢	$1.1K	$721.47	-$115.24	35% 18318-34086 (52404)
└ No leg	Noavg 67.2¢	$514.34	$430.77	-$125.3
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 33.2¢	$322.44	$290.7	+$10.07
RememberAmalek	Noavg 77.1¢	$385.5	$281.59	-$103.91	56% 1029-815 (1844)
Anjun	Noavg 81.6¢	$181.15	$125.03	-$59.5	55% 5020-4103 (9123)
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 35.4¢	$153.16	$98.54	-$28.26	41% 6281-9214 (15495)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Yesavg 43.4¢	$155.37	$49.75	-$41.05	25% 1721-5270 (6991)
WA WarriorHCTR	Yesavg 43.8¢	$132.22	$43.16	-$26.35	17% 1254-6014 (7268)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yes	$27.6	$27.6	+$0	40% 9706-14609 (24315)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$14.1	$7.24	+$3.58	77% 12390-3803 (16193)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 70.4¢	$279.02	$6.25	-$16.83	53% 8266-7377 (15643)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754ARB<$100

Invested

$1,152.25

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$51.61

Record

61%

14-9 (23)

Both legs:

No$863.2257.5¢-$18.45

Yes$277.1935.2¢-$33.16

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$1,206.12

Value

$784.46

PnL

-$220.07

Record

15%

498-2922 (3420)

Both legs:

No$499.6655¢-$13.88

Yes$478.8252.7¢-$206.19

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$1,086.43

Value

$721.47

PnL

-$115.24

Record

35%

18318-34086 (52404)

Both legs:

No$514.3467.2¢-$125.3

Yes$322.4433.2¢+$10.07

RememberAmalek

Invested

$385.5

Value

$281.59

PnL

-$103.91

Record

56%

1029-815 (1844)

Anjun

Invested

$181.15

Value

$125.03

PnL

-$59.5

Record

55%

5020-4103 (9123)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$153.16

Value

$98.54

PnL

-$28.26

Record

41%

6281-9214 (15495)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Yes

Invested

$155.37

Value

$49.75

PnL

-$41.05

Record

25%

1721-5270 (6991)

WarriorHCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.22

Value

$43.16

PnL

-$26.35

Record

17%

1254-6014 (7268)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.6

Value

$27.6

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

9706-14609 (24315)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.1

Value

$7.24

PnL

+$3.58

Record

77%

12390-3803 (16193)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$279.02

Value

$6.25

PnL

-$16.83

Record

53%

8266-7377 (15643)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

810h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.3%

69.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.