Will William Contreras lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in hits?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 92¢ · $611 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$611.19
-$29.75
66.7¢ → 92¢
+38% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CosmicCedar | Yesavg 63.3¢ | $427.41 | $429.1 | +$1.69 | 59% 766-523 (1289) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 44.4¢ | $126.93 | $96.36 | -$5.1 | 24% 285-905 (1190) |
ZX zxc368<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $62.37 | $44.1 | -$18.27 | 99% 12827-194 (13021) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $71.3 | $27.63 | -$8.68 | 36% 15014-27067 (42081) |
CL ClickKlackClick<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $13.4 | $14 | +$0.6 | 99% 170-1 (171) |
CosmicCedarInvested
$427.41
Value
$429.1
PnL
+$1.69
Record
59%
766-523 (1289)
IstarothCTRInvested
$126.93
Value
$96.36
PnL
-$5.1
Record
24%
285-905 (1190)
Invested
$62.37
Value
$44.1
PnL
-$18.27
Record
99%
12827-194 (13021)
Invested
$71.3
Value
$27.63
PnL
-$8.68
Record
36%
15014-27067 (42081)
Invested
$13.4
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.6
Record
99%
170-1 (171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.