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3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $836 held · ends Feb 11, 2027

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Thu, Feb 11, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$836.32

Combined PnL

-$16.41

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 71¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$501.85

Total Shares698

Combined PnL-$37.26

Yes3 traders

Total Value$88.67

Total Shares309

Combined PnL+$20.85

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 69.2¢	$436.85	$245.8	-$7.54	35% 17355-32033 (49388)
└ No leg	Noavg 69.2¢	$161.87	$168.4	-$28.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.2¢	$88.93	$77.4	+$21.19
StudyPrediction	Noavg 84¢	$279.3	$239.4	-$43.23	53% 4640-4053 (8693)
CH chongchongpanda	Noavg 69.3¢	$231.27	$236.88	+$5.6	73% 19-7 (26)
AB ABC12345654321CTR	Yesavg 13.1¢	$840.82	$54.84	+$30.06	50% 1695-1680 (3375)
ND ndb1CTR<$100	Yesavg 39¢	$38.04	$28.03	-$10.01	66% 918-479 (1397)
0X 0x53eCc53E7<$100	Noavg 70¢	$25.21	$25.57	+$0.36	43% 469-622 (1091)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5	$5.8	+$0.8	48% 6864-7497 (14361)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$436.85

Value

$245.8

PnL

-$7.54

Record

35%

17355-32033 (49388)

Both legs:

No$161.8769.2¢-$28.73

Yes$88.9332.2¢+$21.19

StudyPrediction

Invested

$279.3

Value

$239.4

PnL

-$43.23

Record

53%

4640-4053 (8693)

chongchongpanda

Invested

$231.27

Value

$236.88

PnL

+$5.6

Record

73%

19-7 (26)

ABC12345654321CTR

Yes

Invested

$840.82

Value

$54.84

PnL

+$30.06

Record

50%

1695-1680 (3375)

ndb1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.04

Value

$28.03

PnL

-$10.01

Record

66%

918-479 (1397)

0x53eCc53E7<$100

Invested

$25.21

Value

$25.57

PnL

+$0.36

Record

43%

469-622 (1091)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$5.8

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

6864-7497 (14361)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.