Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (79%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 21¢ · $1K held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes79¢No21¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$445.84

Smart Money Entry

43¢ → 21¢

-51% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$698.8

Total Shares852

Combined PnL+$37.96

No5 traders

Total Value$464.78

Total Shares2,734

Combined PnL-$483.8

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

724h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AV aviato	Yesavg 67.8¢	$332.51	$387.21	+$84.11	82% 2523-542 (3065)
HyperlongCTR	Noavg 51.1¢	$672.14	$257.7	-$414.45	47% 320-366 (686)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR	Noavg 32.9¢	$621.96	$204.25	-$73.36	34% 19149-36800 (55949)
WA WarriorH	Yesavg 79.8¢	$472.71	$181.91	-$11.66	17% 1312-6537 (7849)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 78.3¢	$71.59	$75.91	+$4.32	40% 6509-9769 (16278)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Yesavg 73.2¢	$312.58	$36.25	-$39.44	23% 1782-6016 (7798)
AU auros2<$100	Yes	$17.51	$17.51	+$0.62	— 4-0 (4)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Noavg 17.7¢	$8.78	$1.7	+$6.07	48% 7376-8077 (15453)
AnjunCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$2.7	$0.87	-$1.68	55% 5184-4273 (9457)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Noavg 45.1¢	$0.66	$0.27	-$0.39	38% 7141-11763 (18904)

aviato

Yes

Invested

$332.51

Value

$387.21

PnL

+$84.11

Record

82%

2523-542 (3065)

HyperlongCTR

Invested

$672.14

Value

$257.7

PnL

-$414.45

Record

47%

320-366 (686)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR

Invested

$621.96

Value

$204.25

PnL

-$73.36

Record

34%

19149-36800 (55949)

WarriorH

Yes

Invested

$472.71

Value

$181.91

PnL

-$11.66

Record

17%

1312-6537 (7849)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$71.59

Value

$75.91

PnL

+$4.32

Record

40%

6509-9769 (16278)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Yes

Invested

$312.58

Value

$36.25

PnL

-$39.44

Record

23%

1782-6016 (7798)

auros2<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.51

Value

$17.51

PnL

+$0.62

Record

—

4-0 (4)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Invested

$8.78

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$6.07

Record

48%

7376-8077 (15453)

AnjunCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$1.68

Record

55%

5184-4273 (9457)

korda77CTR<$100

Invested

$0.66

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$0.39

Record

38%

7141-11763 (18904)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

724h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.