Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 9m?

2 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 53¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Yes53¢No47¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$5.57

Smart Money Entry

65.3¢ → 52.5¢

-20% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 14 top traders (14%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$760.73

Total Shares1,189

Combined PnL-$84

No12 traders

Total Value$782.38

Total Shares1,913

Combined PnL+$78.42

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e	Yesavg 65¢	$650	$661.5	+$11.5	52% 302-275 (577)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR	Noavg 38.5¢	$169.76	$157.9	-$11.87	35% 698-1270 (1968)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR	Noavg 40¢	$134.76	$152.04	+$17.28	37% 633-1096 (1729)
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 34.4¢	$105.58	$138.09	+$32.51	60% 7176-4688 (11864)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR	Noavg 35¢	$103.9	$131.69	+$27.78	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 66.6¢	$403.25	$99.23	-$95.5	35% 16906-31245 (48151)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 33.7¢	$65.6	$87.5	+$21.9	42% 938-1305 (2243)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$54.62	$50.14	-$4.48	47% 1566-1776 (3342)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 31.2¢	$32.43	$29.59	-$2.84	35% 554-1008 (1562)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 33.9¢	$28.97	$25.34	-$3.63	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 16.2¢	$2.52	$4.05	+$1.53	28% 5949-15562 (21511)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 30.5¢	$3.09	$2.95	-$0.14	45% 1527-1832 (3359)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$2.09	$2.28	+$0.2	38% 680-1090 (1770)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 21.7¢	$0.62	$0.81	+$0.19	17% 221-1047 (1268)

0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e

Yes

Invested

$650

Value

$661.5

PnL

+$11.5

Record

52%

302-275 (577)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR

Invested

$169.76

Value

$157.9

PnL

-$11.87

Record

35%

698-1270 (1968)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR

Invested

$134.76

Value

$152.04

PnL

+$17.28

Record

37%

633-1096 (1729)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$105.58

Value

$138.09

PnL

+$32.51

Record

60%

7176-4688 (11864)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR

Invested

$103.9

Value

$131.69

PnL

+$27.78

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$403.25

Value

$99.23

PnL

-$95.5

Record

35%

16906-31245 (48151)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$65.6

Value

$87.5

PnL

+$21.9

Record

42%

938-1305 (2243)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$54.62

Value

$50.14

PnL

-$4.48

Record

47%

1566-1776 (3342)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$32.43

Value

$29.59

PnL

-$2.84

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$28.97

Value

$25.34

PnL

-$3.63

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$1.53

Record

28%

5949-15562 (21511)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$3.09

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.14

Record

45%

1527-1832 (3359)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$2.09

Value

$2.28

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

680-1090 (1770)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.81

PnL

+$0.19

Record

17%

221-1047 (1268)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 14 top traders (14%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.