Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Western Michigan Broncos Win the 2026 MAC Championship?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 33¢ · $254 held · ends Dec 20
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$253.83
$10.32
Research grade
NeutralYes at 33%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 72.7¢ | $87.57 | $83.17 | -$4.4 | 41% 3119-4481 (7600) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.5¢ | $61.48 | $76.52 | +$15.04 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 71.1¢ | $68.71 | $66.2 | -$2.06 | 53% 40-36 (76) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $19.8 | $20.1 | +$0.3 | — 0-11 (11) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $6.39 | $7.84 | +$1.45 | 39% 1053-1631 (2684) |
Invested
$87.57
Value
$83.17
PnL
-$4.4
Record
41%
3119-4481 (7600)
Invested
$61.48
Value
$76.52
PnL
+$15.04
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$68.71
Value
$66.2
PnL
-$2.06
Record
53%
40-36 (76)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$20.1
PnL
+$0.3
Record
—
0-11 (11)
Invested
$6.39
Value
$7.84
PnL
+$1.45
Record
39%
1053-1631 (2684)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.