Will Werwulf win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 53¢ · $468 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$467.82
$21.23
69.2¢ → 53¢
-23% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 71¢ | $427.67 | $392.81 | +$33.1 | 36% 14550-25983 (40533) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 63.3¢ | $48.93 | $36.79 | -$7.64 | 33% 273-556 (829) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $13.66 | $12.41 | -$1.25 | 30% 184-437 (621) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $12.01 | -$1.59 | 61% 20494-12853 (33347) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $13.22 | $12.01 | -$1.21 | 41% 379-537 (916) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 66.1¢ | $1.98 | $1.8 | -$0.18 | 33% 304-623 (927) |
Invested
$427.67
Value
$392.81
PnL
+$33.1
Record
36%
14550-25983 (40533)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$48.93
Value
$36.79
PnL
-$7.64
Record
33%
273-556 (829)
Invested
$13.66
Value
$12.41
PnL
-$1.25
Record
30%
184-437 (621)
balthazar<$100Invested
$13.6
Value
$12.01
PnL
-$1.59
Record
61%
20494-12853 (33347)
Invested
$13.22
Value
$12.01
PnL
-$1.21
Record
41%
379-537 (916)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$0.18
Record
33%
304-623 (927)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.