Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 7.0¢ · $489 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$489.16

Combined PnL

$41.62

Smart Money Entry

5.7¢ → 7¢

+24% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$364.12

Total Shares5,633

Combined PnL+$50.19

No1 trader

Total Value$125.04

Total Shares134

Combined PnL-$8.57

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE dedidancCTR	Yesavg 0.2¢	$1.57	$147.87	+$146.29	57% 108-82 (190)
HO Hourglass	Noavg 99.8¢	$133.61	$125.04	-$8.57	77% 9130-2738 (11868)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$192.82	$84.36	-$108.46	89% 9267-1189 (10456)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$7.67	$79.32	+$69.4	45% 4130-5005 (9135)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.7¢	$97.17	$44.26	-$52.9	35% 16906-31245 (48151)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$12.45	$8.31	-$4.14	44% 4014-5074 (9088)

dedidancCTR

Yes

Invested

$1.57

Value

$147.87

PnL

+$146.29

Record

57%

108-82 (190)

Hourglass

Invested

$133.61

Value

$125.04

PnL

-$8.57

Record

77%

9130-2738 (11868)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$192.82

Value

$84.36

PnL

-$108.46

Record

89%

9267-1189 (10456)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.67

Value

$79.32

PnL

+$69.4

Record

45%

4130-5005 (9135)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.17

Value

$44.26

PnL

-$52.9

Record

35%

16906-31245 (48151)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.45

Value

$8.31

PnL

-$4.14

Record

44%

4014-5074 (9088)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Late

743h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

9 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.3%

7.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1098.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

1198.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.